Unpacking the AI and Migration Nexus: Reflections from the Future of Work Summit 2024
By Dr. Maria Mexi, Senior Adviser, Trade and Labour Policy, TASC Platform
The 2024 Future of Work Summit broke new ground by fostering collaboration across different mindsets to tackle key issues at the intersection of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Migration. This is particularly timely, as unprecedented levels of global mobility and displacement, coupled with fundamental shifts in work and productivity driven by new technologies, are raising concerns about increased hardship and inequality. Convening policymakers, businesses, researchers, and civil society from across International Geneva and beyond, the Summit deliberations inspired fresh thinking on the challenges and opportunities presented by the AI-Migration nexus, laying the groundwork for a concerted effort.
What is at stake ?
Traditionally siloed in in future-of-work discussions, AI and migration share a common thread: they are both seen as a ‘boon’ and a ‘bane’ - potentially empowering or threatening established notions of work and the workforce. As Janus-faced forces, they are therefore at the center of polarised debates worldwide. Further fueling these debates are ideologically charged narratives claiming that AI and migrants will steal jobs from native populations threatening the cohesion of our societies and labour markets. These reductionist approaches lead ultimately to false assumptions and flawed analysis.
When it comes to migration, labour institutions and experts point out that the real threat to social and labour market cohesion is not migration itself, but labour inequality. Persistent and substantial work-related precarity and exploitation, whether in digital or ‘analogue’ (traditional) labour markets, prevent both native and migrant workers from finding decent work and brighter futures. Of course, direct competition for jobs between disadvantaged native workers and some migrant groups may exist in specific sectors. However, restricting migration is neither an effective nor an efficient solution. It will not help those native workers or avoid polarisation as long as policies fail to address the root causes of structural inequalities that sideline workers (native and migrant) from growth and prosperity.
Sadly, moreover, despite abundant long-term research demonstrating that migration benefits both receiving and sending countries, it hasn't translated into policies for more inclusive labour markets. Many migrant workers, especially those with low skills, face exploitation and limited human and labour rights. Migrant integration policies in many destination countries fall short. Failing to invest in our labour markets' capacity to ensure the well-being of all members fuels negativity. Stereotyping and toxic political narratives thrive in this environment, feeding into social unrest and jeopardizing social cohesion.
When considering AI, both general (Gen) AI and digitalisation can offer opportunities for all workers, native and migrant alike. AI-human augmentation, for example, is creating new possibilities. Digital platform economies have also been successful in connecting migrants and refugees with job opportunities in several countries. However, there are downsides. What about the jobs that will be lost due to automation and advanced AI, inevitably displacing workers? The answer is clear: We are not powerless over their impact. Mainstream discussions about the future of work often make an unstated assumption: that technological change is predetermined, and its effects on jobs and workers are simply inevitable consequences of scientific progress. The message seems to be that workers can only adapt, not influence. However, the pace and direction of AI development are not set in stone. We have choices to make. We can shape the future towards Human-Centered AI (HCAI).
Our democracies, through dialogue and inclusivity, can and should decide how much AI is needed to help workers increase productivity, gain agency and autonomy, and ultimately promote well-being. Social partners in the world of work can play a crucial role in this. Through well-informed social dialogue, they can devise optimal policies that effectively direct technological and AI-driven innovation towards shared prosperity. This includes critically identifying and addressing "AI washing" – companies exaggerating their AI use for funding or appearing cutting-edge, and governments misleading discussions with inflated AI content while deliberately avoiding real problems like wages that fail to ensure a decent incomes in conditions of rising living costs, the normalisation of precarious and uncontracted labour, or exploitation.
Machines or migrants? : the ethical dilemma at the AI-Migration nexus
When considering how much AI we need, we confront a key issue at the heart of the AI-Migration nexus: Will machines or people address demographic challenges and labour shortages caused by population decline and ageing? Many governments facing significant anti-immigration sentiment hope that machines can replace a shrinking working-age population and fill workforce gaps. However, skeptics question the ethical aspects of using technology to eliminate jobs when there is no global worker shortage. Lant Pritchett makes a compelling point regarding the "artificial" demand driving the need for AI in the US transportation sector. Big tech companies invest in self-driving vehicles to reduce reliance on human drivers. Even though a global pool of potential truck drivers exists, willing to work for $23 per hour in the US (compared to $4 per hour in developing countries), immigration restrictions prevent companies from recruiting foreign workers, even at higher wages. This impels business to choose machines over people. However, if global recruitment were possible, there might be less incentive to replace workers with machines. This push for AI could not only be a waste of resources but also perpetuate global poverty.
Concurrently, the challenges for migrant workers already in destination countries facing AI-driven job displacement are immense. Countries heavily deploying AI-powered robots often see job displacement, particularly in sectors traditionally filled by migrant workers. These workers are especially disadvantaged compared to natives. Language barriers and discriminatory labour market structures, such as a lack of recognition of foreign qualifications, can prevent them from accessing the same networks and institutions that might help them adapt. Additionally, migrants may have less access to information on the need to reskill or switch jobs. Deportation adds another layer of distress. When visas are tied to specific job offers, losing that job due to AI could lead to deportation if a new one is not found within a limited timeframe. Jobless migrant workers returning home then bring the societal costs of unemployment with them, such as a strain on social services and a loss of remittances, which can be crucial for their families' well-being. This is becoming an increasingly pressing issue in regions like Asia.
Solutions at the AI-Migration nexus
Having unpacked the challenges and opportunities at the intersection of AI and migration, what lies ahead?
Breaking silos: Fostering collaboration between the AI and migration communities is crucial for understanding the challenges and opportunities at this intersection.
Democratising the debate: Well-informed public discourse and democratic deliberation can dispel misconceptions around both AI and migration, fostering a deeper public understanding of the stakes and choices. Social dialogue that includes all voices, especially migrants and refugees, is essential.
Investing in research with a broader lens: Current research on AI's impact on workers often neglects migrant workers. More granular research at regional, national, and sectoral levels is needed to understand how AI specifically affects them compared to native workers. This will inform policies that empower both groups in AI-driven labour markets.
A global mechanism for labour mobility: Legal and well-designed channels for labour mobility are needed alongside global efforts for ethical and responsible AI. This requires strong intergovernmental cooperation and multilateral action.
Bringing labour standards to the table: The global push for ethical and responsible AI regulation at regional, national, and multilateral levels should integrate international labour standards and efforts to safeguard rights for AI-affected migrant workers, an aspect that has so far been inadequately addressed.
Regional considerations: Setting region-wide standards for ethical AI and worker protection is crucial, particularly in regions with significant intra-regional migration, such as Africa.
People's choice: Ultimately, the future is in our hands. We must shape the AI-Migration nexus for serving humanity.